Place Your Bets: The Over/Under on Northampton County’s Tax Increase Is 18.5%

Oct. 19, 2026

— Jeff Ward, Lehigh Valley News Briefs

Northampton County Executive Tara Zrinski tried for a Hail Mary pass when she presented her 2027 budget but it quickly turned into a Pick 6.

For people who don’t follow football, that means things went badly. There has been near-universal opposition to the $567 million budget, including from County Council members who will review it.

Zrinski’s game plan is to boost the property tax, known as the millage, 44% to 15.5 mills from 10.8. Each mill equals $1 in tax per $1,000 of taxable property value. That would cost an average property owner about $24 more per month, according to the Zrinski administration.

It will actually cost more because many businesses will raise prices to keep up with costs. There is no free lunch.

Normal people don’t talk about mills, so the 44% increase is more meaningful. My projection is that the increase will wind up at 2 mills, or 18.5%. In football, the over/under is for gamblers who bet on whether the total points scored by both teams will be more or less the O/U, which might, for example, be set by oddsmakers at 57 points.

So in betting terms, the O/U for the increase is 18.5%. This bet has no winners, though. We all will pay, and there may be other increases in the next few years.

The Executive is in a tough spot. Prices are going up, some employees are underpaid, and the Gracedale nursing home is weighing on the county. Most Pennsylvania counties don’t own a nursing home.

Expect more debate over Gracedale. Some says it’s essential as the home of last resort for the elderly and infirm, while others would be glad to be rid of it. A recent presentation to Council about the home did not inspire confidence in its future. Quite the opposite.

The county provides some essential services, particularly the 911 center, a round-the-clock operation that does important work. County money also goes to the prison, it funds the courts and maintains parks.

Zrinski is indeed in a tough spot but as a former member of Council and County Controller, she knew that when she ran for Executive.

Trust the Process? No. The process started badly, with the Executive being 17 minutes late to her own press conference.

Zrinski then went off-script — if there was a script — during the Oct. 2 presentation. That didn’t help her cause. She talked too much about pensions, which makes taxpayers who don’t have pensions angry about paying for other people’s pensions.

There is going to be an increase, it’s just a matter of how much. There hasn’t been one in years.

County Council’s hearings start Wednesday. The public can attend and complain about the budget or applaud it.

Zrinski is a Democrat, as are eight members of Council. I’ve talked to some of the Democrats on Council. They are at least as unhappy as the taxpayers because the Pick-6 thrown by Zrinski is being tied to them even though they don’t set the budget.

Current O/U: 18.5%. That may change during the hearings. Place your bets, but remember, we all lose.

**A few notes about the tax and process. The budget is from the Executive only. Council has no input into shaping it before it’s public and Council is separate from the administration. Council can amend the budget, but the county Home Rule Charter (its Constitution) gives the Executive the upper hand in the process.

Also, complaints that the budget process was scheduled to last beyond the November election are incorrect. The schedule is about the same as usual, and the worst of the bad news is already out.

Property taxes from school districts and municipalities are separate. This increase, whatever it works out be, applies only to taxes paid to the county.